The future development path of industrial robots in China is serial II: the development of industrial robots in the integrated application of 3C industry. This article is based on Du Zhengzhi, one of the co founders of the Mei Qing society, at the "first 3C industrial intelligent manufacturing Summit Forum in Shenzhen" at the 2015 Shenzhen high fair.
One of the co founders of the Mei Mei Youth Association
In the last speech, I talked about the road to the future development of Chinese industrial robots I was talking about how the "machine" people went to the machine "man" - the Chinese industrial robot.
Today I'm going to talk about the cold thinking of industrial robots in the 3C industry. We know that the current bubble and capital influx have made a big impact on the industry, the impact is the benefits, the impact is developing, but when it's so hot, we really need to think cold, or it's hard for us to have a bubble. To improve myself, my topic is to think colder.
Let's take a good look first. This is a good industry data. By 2020, the scale of China's ontology market is 25 billion, and the scale of ontology and topic integration system is 100 billion. In the middle is to say that there are 75 billion markets in the face of our integrators, which is why so many integrators and all walks of life are going to enter the integrated industry in Shenzhen. Another two data, which is related to the ontology, is the average annual demand of 100 thousand, and the demand for 2020 to 600 thousand. This number is based on the robot density to accelerate the application to reach the global average (62 / 10000) by 2020. In such a large area of the Pearl River Delta, our integrated data will certainly exceed the number. This level is only 2016 or 2017.
This is the characteristic of the Chinese industrial robot enterprise, which is supposed to be very good and very tall enterprise, robot industry. Now we have done the labor intensive in the injection molding manipulator and module industry. This kind of factory is often five or six hundred people, but the per capita capacity is not high, so I belong to labor intensive, such enterprises are not It's a very painful business.
The second enterprises are now very difficult to develop the enterprise, that is the robot body. Now we know that the foreign robot has already entered China for more than 20 years. The robot brand of foreign capital has reached 90% of the market share in China, and we are now pouring into hundreds of thousands of people to do this robot body. At this time, it is no longer your business strategy, supply chain resources and capital. Just like a foreign capital, we can offer dozens of hundreds of ontologies like our BYD and Foxconn for half a year. Can we do that? We can't, but we have a way out. We can compete in an ingenious way: (a system integrator) is a knowledge-based enterprise whose core is the engineer.
Then look at the next direction, this is the smile curve of the industrial robot industry I listed, the left home is also doing it now, there are some technical breakthroughs, but we have 10 thousand units from the mass production and a long distance to 10 thousand technologies, so the left is not related to us. And now it is flooding into the market of robot ontology, which has the lowest added value and needs a lot of money to deal with it. Nearly 20 million of a company burned in Dongguan has entered the process of breaking capital chain. Robot education and system integrators correspondingly have high added value. What we can do is to work hard at the integrator. When we turn the left into the "middle" name, our industrial chain has a great advantage. We are not talking about a big and strong robot, but a big and strong, so to the left. The side force is our goal.
This is the ten problem that customers pay most attention to: reducing labor cost, improving production efficiency, simplifying management mode, providing work safety, enhancing production flexibility, reducing the ratio of material consumption, reducing production process cost, improving the utilization of factory area, improving product quality, improving the reputation of the enterprise brand, the customer's most close. Note is to reduce labor costs, customers often ask my equipment how long can recover the cost. Second, 3C industry determines it is a small variety of small variety, we do not have that big quantity, so large quantity of suppliers in Foxconn, BYD, a second line agent brand, we now access the customers may be three line, or may be in the second line transfer order. Third, the customer will ask us, I use the equipment after the entire consumables, and now artificial waste is a very serious problem, so the customer must pay attention to the ratio of consumables. And the promotion of corporate brands, we know that customers are now asking whether the business is automated, automation represents delivery on time, quality promotion, so the robot was not too determined to decide the order before, but it has now become the standard of the reputation of the enterprise brand. As we go to the restaurant now without Wi-Fi is unacceptable, the future of our customers in the selection, the automation of the enterprise is a very important determinant of its order.
Again look at the four important problems of machine replacement, which is also the biggest problem we often go out for business negotiations. We often tell which robot you use, which robot is actually a small step in this, and all the robot bodies, no matter which one, must be combined with the product process. After two development and integration, it can be debugged to suit the production of domestic enterprises. Apple is very comfortable for automation, including HUAWEI and millet, but why is it hard to promote in many industries? The reason is that our product design is designed according to the artificial process. I contacted several cases, the first one is laptop charger, we know the round head. The second is the headset, many people want to use automation, but there is no way, because the first wire is too flexible and fixed, second it does not design the automation of this process, so the degree of automatic process design of the product determines the development progress of the integrated project. Third, we talk to customers, a lot of people go out to answer the list of how cheap my plan, he 200 thousand I 150 thousand, you will lead to the misunderstanding of the customer. We tell him exactly, the price of the machine is not low, 150 thousand, 200 thousand is only the cost of hardware, and the entire customer service, you have no use of the machine there, he also has to receive training, if your equipment is difficult to learn, he also needs to match a team, which is far greater than him. The cost of investing in hardware is something we need to talk to him clearly. The fourth problem is connected with third problems. The more difficult than hardware input is the application of tool input and software input. We need to make an application engineer who needs to move in a linear way. The line needs to be maintained by engineers. What do we need for a lot of small products? I have been to a lot of toy factories to do research, I found that the toy factory is very difficult to use, of course, I now also have part of the customer toy factory work, that is, they have done the improvement of the process. I once went to a toy factory with 1500 kinds of products. The mold was full of space, and its production cycle was only four hours. There are many integrator friends here. Do you think such a single connection is acceptable? I will not give him more than 1 million equipment, but he has more than 10 million of his inputs. This is what we need to make clear when we do business with our customers, otherwise you will be trapped in a difficult situation.
This is the most painful problem at present. The first is that our customers' consciousness is not strong enough. In addition, we have problems in the entire application, the whole development of talents and the chain of our entire capital, so funds and talents are the factors that I put in the first place. The second problem, many enterprises have a part of the single machine workstation, we can not replace the original equipment, but the introduction of equipment use rate needs to be improved, it is a problem that we need to consider when we do the overall reform planning. The third problem is that the enterprise is not enough to understand the replacement of the machine, and it is not enough to understand the software and the industrial appliance, which is doomed to be wrong from the beginning of some of our projects. Fourth is the lack of professional service institutions, this is the same as the first problem, is the lack of talent, the lack of application field, hairstyle of talent, the lack of training personnel, this is now you dig me I dug you, this is the problem of professional service. Another is that some key generic technologies need to be tackled. We often sign the secrecy agreements in the industry. In fact, we are helping the industry to solve the problem, but at the end of the year, we are difficult to promote in the industry because there is a confidentiality agreement.
This is a simple analysis I made to analyze the advantages and disadvantages, opportunities and risks of integrators. First, we have a new round of engineer bonuses. Second, we have a good cooperative attitude. We often call a lot of bosses, or we are on the way to solve the problem, or a tens of millions of bosses repair the equipment on the spot, and the boss has done the things that the technicians do. Our current owners are from the automation industry, or from other places, in this industry have more than ten years of experience, have a very good person, where there is what needs will be known in the first time. As a flexible business mode, we all know that our salesmen are very OK and can get all the customers' information in various ways. Next, we will do the exchange meeting. I also hope that you can make this analysis better at the exchange meeting.
Looking at the opportunities now, the density of robots in the automotive industry has reached 61, but the experience of the automotive industry can not be used in 3C, which is our opportunity. There are many application cases in the automotive industry, which is useless. In the 3C industry, it is necessary to come back again. There is also the density problem. The industrial robot's application base in the 3C industry is 7%.
When we say that we are good at seeing the bad, it is because the integrator is destined to be small in size and weak in qualification. At that time, it became a weak qualification and weak brand. Because we are doing technology, the other direction of the company's operation is completely ignored, so destined to brand weakness, qualification weak. Another big problem is that cash flow is very, very easy. Our customers say, the acceptance of the acceptance of two months, or the acceptance of your equipment problems, we often think that our operating funds to operate five projects, but the actual operation of only three projects, because the funds can not be in place, which is a big problem for the enterprise. Second is our development idea is not clear, our technical personnel become business personnel, our business people go out with people to talk about technology, everyone is completely misplaced, the result has become the full lack of communication, turned into the demand is not the real needs of the customer, when you do the equipment is not the user needs. The necessary equipment. Many problems do not communicate well. This is the problem we are facing now. When I deal with Japanese companies, they are all four people, they are responsible for the technology, and they are responsible for business. Today, we can't raise so many people, but we should pay attention to not turning themselves into the most good. This is the biggest mistake we have now. Another thing is that we have just said the lack of professional services in this industry, our turnover rate is very high, we often face the angle and angle, often in the game between the counter and the counter, this evening drinking a wine to come back, this is the biggest problem in the industry. Of course, we encourage the positive flow of talent, but we do not encourage such talents to form bubbles.
And then look at the risk. The risk comes from what we do now is a customer, a redesigned non - standard case to undertake too much, my agent told me in early 2014, Adu, this year is very lucky, I received 13 projects this year. He was in the Japanese enterprise in 80s to do technology, senior man, I asked him at the end of the year, I asked him how your project, he said that the acceptance of the 1, the other 12 complete cards there, the team is not enough, the design can not keep up. This is just the design can not keep up with, not yet from specific design to application, this is the biggest misunderstanding. I want to eat all the food, but in the end I can't measure whether I can eat it. This is the biggest problem. Second aspects, the application of the selection of robots in the integration scheme, one is that I want to choose foreign capital, which is doomed to high prices, the quality of the selection of domestic capital is not very good, that must be selected in the middle. Customers will tell me, I want ten such lines, do you believe it? You will believe it, but I believe he has only this line, because he has no plan for his future. How can there be ten lines? The third question comes. We see that each person who makes a forum and carries out too much capital will send us business cards. They are also looking for the mark in this industry. The more capital the industry has, the more the capital is driven, the more competition we have. This is the competition between industries, and the competition of talents. The competition for talents is fierce. We are all the best to cultivate our own people.
This is the best three directions for robot application. Japan has done its own job and completed the turnkey project on the layered surface. We know that the Japanese robot ontology is the Automation Department of the former enterprise, and we see that many of the EPSON are like this, and their automation department is derived from the robot factory, and they have a complete industrial chain. The industrial chain of smile curve is not perfect. When Japan's industrial chain is perfect, it can do better.
The question is, who should we learn in the three direction? I think we should learn from the United States first, because our industrial robots are too weak now. We also design a complete set of plans, that is, the way the integrators go now. After that, we will learn from Japan, because China is also developing robot ontology, and we are also doing some things through overseas mergers and acquisitions. So the Japanese model in Asia, the East must have reference, so we can start from the American model to the Japanese model, which is a direction for me.
Then look again, this is very critical for the integrator, this is the customer's consumption thinking, we take HUAWEI, apple, we have not seen the other Shanzhai mobile phone, because our awareness of consumption has increased. So many of our integrators are still in the first stage of this small person. Everyone tells me who I am and who, I'm sorry I haven't heard it, why, because you are a miscellaneous card, you are a miscellaneous brand in the industry. Don't think I know my name by printing a name card business. You have only done the design of the industry, and have not done anything else. Customer consumption is a famous brand priority, brand second, the least miscellaneous brand, so we system integrators to do when we must make the brand, brand name brand, when everyone knows you are successful. Of course, I am not referring to the hype of Feng Jie, which is not desirable.
Many people and I have sold fifty million or one hundred million of my sales. Now I want to go to the new three boards, I want to standardize the stock reform, I feel very good. Ten years ago, we thought NOKIA was very good and fell down. Ten years ago, we thought Motorola was very good and fell down. More and more enterprises in China, NOKIA is the function machine is done by the smart machine, this is the attack of the industry, so we must be in danger today, the industry problem is the growth of Chinese enterprises beyond the past, to be solved from the industry.
We often talk about overtaking corners. Where is the road? We can only hold the client, 3C's cake is so big, the whole Pearl River Delta we can see, facing so many competitors, how should we have the right of speech, negotiation and pricing power? I think integrators must have independent intellectual property rights at the application side and find automation in every industry segmentation. This is the way out for us to develop.
Let me talk about the direction of the builders. First, we should be based on the application of the industry, this is the change of its religion, for example, you do not choose an industry to eat, you do not know the process of this industry, this time you will have a problem. The second is the integration, the first floor production line is our overall integration effect, caused the attention of the provincial and provincial leaders, also caused the concern of the large customers, because we integrated it into a small production line, at this time we have the advantage of focusing, attracting and negotiating, integration is necessary. After the integration, we have standardized our equipment, which is necessary, modular production, if not, you do not know where your next direction and platform. After we finish these three, we need the gold masters like China Merchants Bank to use their power to make financial strategy. After the financial strategy has been made, our overall development is accelerating. This must be our way forward.
Now some people ask if we can directly use financial strategy. No, when your auto tire screws are not locked and you do not finish the closed loop, you run up and the tires will fall off. So to step by step, we can also order two orders to run the process first, run out to find whether it is Vic, funds, banks, find gold owners, gold owners can copy but not our future model, this is what we want to do.
Finally, I want to send this picture to you. This is our 3C intelligent manufacturing forward plan. This is to help us to set up a positioning, also to the customer positioning, we can tell him what kind of plans he needs, step by step, Rome is not built in a day.
We are now the whole Pearl River Delta 3C enterprise almost in these two links, so everyone in these two links do well, do not speak every day industry 4, industrial 4 now have nothing to do with us.