Now both the Chinese machine tool industry and the Chinese manufacturing industry are in a time window, which is both an end and an expectation. It is both a sensitive and critical point of time and an opportunity to sum up the past and think about the future.
There are many landmark events in this time window, for example, the twelfth five year plan will be completed and the national plan for "13th Five-Year" is launched. The next round of "going out" blueprint is launched by the national strategy of "one road and one road", and the Asian investment bank is successfully built to provide financial support for the infrastructure construction in Asia. The State Council has launched a high profile "China made 2025" strategy, intelligent manufacturing as the next round of policy oriented tuyere industry, and the deep integration of new generation of information technology and manufacturing industry, which is triggering far-reaching industrial changes; China's economic development has entered a new normal state, and the macro-economic operation is continuing to reduce its speed. When the journey is tested. The time point of a series of important opportunities and challenges has formed the background of the transformation and upgrading of the machine tool industry in China today. At this time, the observation and judgment will directly affect the choice of the future road and the fate of the industry. At this time, it is a special time of active thought, discussion and opinion. Period.
To this end, the media department of the China Machine Tool Industry Association interviewed Mr. Chen Huiren, the deputy director and Secretary General of the China Machine Tool Industry Association, and asked him to comb and analyze the current situation and contradictions of the machine tool industry in China.
First: the situation judgment
Media department reporter: China's economic growth rate from the second half of 2011 to farewell to the past 10 years in the past 10 years, about 10% of the high speed growth, falling to annual growth rate of about 7%, the macro growth from high speed to medium and high speed growth of the new normal. During this period, the total demand for machine tool and tools in China has experienced a continuous drop process. The industry has encountered many difficulties. What is the specific situation and situation?
Chen Huiren: as for the industry as a whole, the downlink of China's machine tool manufacturing industry began in the second half of 2011, and has lasted for 4 years. The direct reason for the downlink of the industry is that the domestic machine tool consumption market has undergone significant and continuous changes, and the basic characteristics of the market change are two aspects: on the one hand, the apparent decrease in the total demand and the significant upgrading of the demand structure on the other.
According to the Association statistics, compared with the beginning of 2011, the total consumption of domestic machine tool market dropped by 18.6% in 2014. It must be pointed out that the decline in the total market demand is structural, that is, the decline in demand for low-grade universal products is the most prominent, falling sharply, or even the "cliffs" fall. And the market of this kind of products is precisely the main support for China's machine tool industry to achieve rapid growth in the past. We have dominated the market share in this market for a long time, so the demand of this kind of market has fallen sharply, which has brought great impact to most of the machine tool manufacturing enterprises in China. Therefore, over the past 4 years, the industry has been under tremendous downward pressure, and from the current situation, this downward pressure is still increasing.
According to the statistical data of the association's key link network, the newly added orders for machine tools of metal processing fell 6.3% in the first half of this year, the main business income dropped 6.4% year on year, the output of machine tools dropped by 15.3%, and the total profits were down 29.9% year-on-year, and the total profit of the Jin cutting machine tool field was down 207.1% from the same period. In the first half of this year, the total industry deficit enterprises accounted for 40% (39.4%), of which the enterprises in the gold cutting machine area were nearly half of the deficit (48.6%). This shows that in the first half of the year, except for export indicators (up 2.3% over the same period), all showed a downward trend. Under the pressure of continuous downward pressure, some enterprises are facing difficulties in operation, and a few enterprises are in semi shutdown or even stop production.
At the same time, we must point out that the downward pressure continues to increase and business difficulties are difficult to represent the whole picture of the industry. In order to make a comprehensive and accurate judgement of the industry situation, we must observe and analyze from many angles and levels. At the meeting of the director general of the association, I have put forward four basic judgments on the current situation of the industry, and made four basic estimates for the current and next two years' trend of industry.
The basic judgment of the present situation is: First: the main body of the industry is still in the downlink range, and the downward pressure is further increased; second: the basic characteristics of the market change of the total demand total reduction and the significant upgrading of the demand structure are increasingly obvious; third: many aspects of the industrial structure differentiation began to appear; Fourth: the adjustment of the industry transformation. There are positive changes in the process.
The basic estimates for this year and the next two years are, first, the basic characteristics and changing trends of the Chinese machine tool market to consumption will be more obvious; second, the operation of the industry will also bear greater downside pressure; third, the structural differentiation of the market pattern and enterprise competition will be further revealed; fourth, the positive actions of the government and enterprises will be taken as a result. Effectively hedging downside pressure.
Media department reporter: after 10 years of rapid growth, the machine tool industry has been in a 4 year continuous downturn. Well, it's still in an acceptable range of ups and down, but many of us are already in the feeling that we can't stand it and get ready, so everyone is very concerned about where it is. Because the bottom will pick up, the situation will not be worse. But after all, it is perceptual expression and response. What are the underlying causes leading to these difficulties and even crises?
Chen Huiren: our understanding of the current difficult situation should be rational and objective. The word "crisis" is a bit too much for adjustment. Because this is an inevitable stage determined by the law of economic development. From a long-term perspective, adjustment is normal and even necessary. The logic of historical development will not be a straight line, and economic growth is also fluctuating.
Compared with the developed countries, the development of machine tool industry in China is still in the primary stage, and the machine tool industry in any developed country is unlikely to have so many machine tool manufacturers in our industry. In Japan, for example, the number of machine tool factories in Japan has been cut by half compared with twenty or thirty years ago. In accordance with this trend, China's machine tool enterprises will undergo a tough competition in structural adjustment. In fact, this adjustment is proceeding with the changing situation.
As the beginning of the adjustment in October 2011, we made a judgement at the meeting of the executive director of the machine tool association: the industry has begun to enter a new stage of historical development, and one of the basic features of this stage is the differentiation and reorganization of the enterprise. From the historical point of view, or from the perspective of development, such a process of elimination is to be experienced sooner or later, not to be around, and will not be comfortable to achieve. The change of the current economic environment is an external driving force, in which the industry structure is adjusted in depth.
There are many problems and difficulties in the adjustment. We must see the essence through the phenomenon. On the surface, it is a serious shortage of demand. In fact, it is difficult to solve the structural contradiction between the low end surplus and the high end shortage. It is the contradiction between the rapid upgrading of the demand structure of the domestic market and the failure of the machine tool industry to meet and meet this demand. Looking at this structural problem is still the main contradiction.
The reasons for structural defects are: first, over the past few years, especially in the past 10 years, the extensive mode of economic development has sought to expand volume. Such a big economic environment has great impact on our industry, simply pursuing quantity but neglecting the development of quality. The two is the strategic convergence of machine tool enterprises for many years, which results in the strategic pursuit of "big and strong", and the consequence of the strategic convergence is the homogeneous competition of low end products. Three is the development of the manufacturing industry for many years, the existence of unhealthy factors, the prominent feature is impetuous, quiet, stable, wind and fire, praying for a day of rich. For example, if we see heavy machine tools sell well, we will go all out to make heavy ones, so that heavy machine tools will soon be severely overloaded.
Second: problem analysis
Media department reporter: China's machine tool industry has swallowed the bitter fruit of structural defects again and again, and now the external economic environment is forcing us to adjust and upgrade. In fact, the pain of "high end and low end" has long been a chronic disease in the industry. It is not without understanding and no effort, but why is it defeated and defeated and defeated?
Chen Huiren: as we pointed out at the general meeting of the standing director of the association at the end of 2011, "it is undeniable that the significant change in the market environment is the direct cause of the difficult situation in the current industry, but we must also realize that in the rapid development process of the past 10 years in the industry, the economic development is due to the economic development." The driving and coercing of the big environment, as well as the restriction of the stage of the development of the industry, the transformation of the mode of development has not been given due attention. In terms of the huge achievement of the scale growth, the structural adjustment is obviously lagging behind. This is another important reason that can not be evaded. It can also be said to be a more fundamental reason.
The actual situation after 4 years, at least from two aspects, confirmed the judgement at that time. One aspect is that the structural imbalance of the external environment is becoming more and more serious. Because of the slow transformation of the mode of development, the outstanding contradictions and problems of the macro-economy are concentrated on the deactivation and deficiency of economic resources, and the real cold and heat of the economic signs. On the other hand, many enterprises are involved in the excessive expansion of the previous scale, overcapacity and decline in efficiency, which is obviously a consequence of the lag in structural adjustment.
It can be seen that the transformation of the mode of economic development and the adjustment and upgrading of enterprise structure are fundamental problems. While the former has external and objective attributes, it is not transferred by our will. The latter has internal and subjective attributes, which can be changed through our efforts. This is the main task faced by the industry in the new historical development stage.
Media department reporter: now we are in deep trouble, adjustment and upgrading has become a road in Huashan. How can we turn passivity into initiative?
Chen Huiren: the machine tool industry of our country has come to the critical period of climbing the ridge and rolling stone, and whether it can come out in this harsh adjustment depends on the investment of the enterprise resources. The direction of enterprise resources depends on entrepreneurs, and the first is entrepreneurs' understanding of the problem and the way out. There are some personal views on this issue.
(1) on the hard and soft issues. Technical equipment, marketing means, competitive conditions, excellent talents and so on are hard problems, and money can be solved; and the enterprise system, culture, mechanism and atmosphere are soft issues and can not be solved by money. It can be seen that the soft problem is the main problem of the transformation and upgrading of enterprises, and the main aspect of contradictions. So, to solve the soft problem is a hard task.
(2) on homogeneity and differentiation. Usually we think that upgrading from low-end products to high-end products is the way to solve the problem of survival and development. Homogenization is the more essential difference between us and international advanced ones. Because low-end products can also rely on differentiation to obtain living space, and differentiated survival is a healthy industrial ecosystem. Even if you are a high-end product, you should avoid rushing headlong into the crowd and blindly following suit.
(3) on the breadth and depth. The market strategy of thousands of mountains and thousands of households is to make articles on the breadth. And personalized customization, providing users with a full range of solutions, etc., is in the depth of the market efforts. At present, some enterprises have already contracted appropriately on the surface, because only breadth does not help the upgrading of enterprises, or is the old way of volume expansion.
(4) subversive innovation and continuous improvement. In fact, subversive innovation is a high - level innovation in a hundred years, and sustainable improvement may be more effective for a manufacturing sector that needs solid basic skills than subversive innovation. Some hundred years old enterprises in Europe and Japan are talking about improvement and accumulation, and the continuous improvement of winning and winning is the soul of these excellent manufacturing enterprises. And we often say that the bend overtakes, likes to finish at the same time, likes to "subversion", the result is to do a lot of sandwich rice, haste less.
(5) from "can do" to "do well". To be a high-end product, one must be able to do it; the two is to do well. "To do" is important, but it is not easy to do well, and we should focus more on "doing well". Instead of the blind bear breaking the rice and being satisfied with showing scientific research results, they no longer work hard to do well.
Third: Policy Exploration
Media department reporter: after discussing the external environment and causes of the development of the industry, and the understanding of the internal change, we also want to listen to your opinion on the industrial policy.
Chen Huiren: the industrial policy of machine tool industry is worth discussing. Although the state has always attached great importance to the development of CNC machine tool industry, the governments at all levels have given great support to the development of CNC machine tool industry for many years, but today, compared with the developed countries, the CNC machine tool industry still has a large comprehensive gap, especially in the high grade products and the core technology. Many high quality machine tools needed in many key industries also rely heavily on imports. The reasons for the formation of this passive situation are multifaceted, and the industry needs to continue to make comprehensive efforts, but the appropriate adjustment of the national industrial policy ideas is also very necessary.
As we all know, in our country, CNC machine tool industry has long been a fully competitive industry, CNC machine tool market is also a completely open market, and even the import of many high-end products also give tax reduction policy concessions. It must be acknowledged that the above policy environment has played an active role in expanding the field of vision, expanding communication, integrating the global industrial cooperation and competition actively, and promoting progress in cooperation and competition. But at the same time, it has also produced a considerable degree of negative effects, the most prominent of which is to a considerable extent. It has restrained the progress and development of domestic high-end CNC machine tools.
In addition to a small number of enterprises, at present, we still have a huge gap with the developed countries in the high-end products and core technology. Therefore, we can not compete with foreign strong hands under the full market environment. In front of the great advantages of foreign strong hands, we are almost pressed to raise our heads in the market of our own home.
Therefore, we believe that in the field of high-end products and core technology, the current stage is not appropriate to adopt a fully market-based policy. The state should give appropriate industrial protection to slow down the market pressure of domestic high-end products and core technologies so that they can step by step in proper protection to participate in full market competition. Power.
At the same time, we also believe that in the past, most of the national policies focused on the means of financial subsidies, while the western developed countries were more supported by tax means. In this regard, it is necessary for our government to consider and draw lessons from it. At present, the association is preparing the "China Machine Tool 2020" planning, the main purpose is to provide reference for the enterprise to formulate "13th Five-Year" planning; two is to the government to formulate industrial policy proposals. One important recommendation is to adopt corresponding policies such as VAT reduction.